Despite numerous headwinds such as higher prices and credit card rates, consumer spending has continued to exceed the forecasts of economists. In September, retail sales surged 0.7% from August, far above the consensus of just 0.3%. Significant gains were seen across a wide range of categories, particularly in restaurants/bars and motor vehicle parts/dealers. Retail sales, which are not adjusted for inflation, were 3.8% higher than a year ago, roughly matching the increase in prices over that period.
mortgage rates
mortgage rates
Higher mortgage rates continue to take their toll on the housing market. Sales of existing homes in September fell a little from August and were 15% lower than last year at this time. This was the slowest sales pace since October 2010. Inventory levels stand at just a 3.4-month supply nationally, far below the 6-month supply typical in a balanced market. The supply of single-family homes available for sale is now at the lowest level since 1982. The median existing-home price of $394,300 was 3% higher than last year at this time.
Housing
housing
Given the severe shortage of homes in many regions, the data released this week was mostly encouraging. In September, overall housing starts increased 7% from August. Single-family building permits, a leading indicator, rose to the highest level since May 2022. On the flip side, a separate survey of home builder sentiment on housing market conditions from the NAHB unexpectedly fell to the lowest level since January.
what is the fed saying
fed chair powell
A speech by Fed Chair Powell on Thursday provided no precise guidance on future monetary policy. Essentially, his comments again boiled down to the simple fact that decisions will be based on incoming economic data. He acknowledged substantial progress in the battle against inflation but pointed out that more work needs to be done to get back down to the 2% annual target. According to Powell, achieving this goal is likely to require slower economic growth and "some further softening" of the labor market. Investors remain split about whether there will be another 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate in com ing months.
investors
investors
Investors will continue to watch for Fed officials to elaborate on their plans for future monetary policy. For economic reports, New Home Sales will come out on Wednesday. Third quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity will be released on Thursday. The next European Central Bank meeting also will take place on Thursday. Personal Income and the PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will come out on Friday.
Average 30 year mortgage rates
average rates
30 Year Fixed - 7.875%
15 Year Fixed - 7.31%
30 Year Jumbo - 8.01%
5/1 ARM - 7.30%
30 Year FHA - 7.40%
30 Year VA - 7.44%
*These are not necessarily our rates! These are the average 30 year rates as taken from a nation-wide poll.
How are agents driving business in unique ways to help business keep moving?
Educating the public on loan programs that fill a need for clients who have been underserved like the Hometown Heroes or FHA Link
Creating videos on this information and boosting them to draw in new clients
Using Hometown Heroes to find a niche in their community
Using the 10-10-10 strategy to bring in fresh prospects and relationships on social media based on the connections they already have
Using the REACH app to stay connected with the people they know socially and through business
Removing any lead generation activities that are not income producing or authentic to how they want to run their business
Meeting with Jenny & Jenn to evaluate both their organizational & lead gen systems to ensure they are being purposeful and taking advantage of every relationship possible.
Using rent vs buy and appreciation data that Jenny creates for them on specific properties in their area to educate their buyers in person and on social media to help them get off the sidelines and into a home
Participating in the Monday Morning Video Accountability Meeting at 10 AM so they can create 3 videos every week with us to ensure they are getting their name out there!