A Wild Week: Mixed Signals & Housing Impact |
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This past week has been a wild ride. It can be difficult to know how to feel about buying/selling with this frenzied news cycle. Below is a graphical chronology of one of the most turbulent weeks we've seen since Covid. I'm going to hit you with a lot of snapshots, then I'll share what I believe people active in the market should consider. |
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First, a Soft jobs report. (a.k.a. Less jobs created.) |
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Japan and the “Yen Carry Trade” breaks the world. (a.k.a. Japan raising rates had a negative effect on US stock market.) |
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Stock market crashes (a.k.a. Oy.) |
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Then, Jobless Claims came in lower than expected. (a.k.a. less people are claiming joblessness, which is GOOD for the market.) |
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And the Stock market rallies (a.k.a.… turnaround? ) |
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Now the question you're probably asking...how does this impact Housing?
Core Goods CPI trending down at 1% well below the Fed's Target of 2% (a.k.a. the cost of goods decreases, as Fed sees prices fall, they are more inclined to cut interest rates…) |
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Inventory is building. (a.k.a. more homes are available.) |
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Rates are falling (as of 8/2). (a.k.a. due to a myriad of factors, rates are falling, which has home buyers' attention…) |
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Demand is still in a state of Purgatory. (a.k.a. A rise in Mortgage Apps is the first signal that demand is increasing…) |
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THREE days later, rates are increasing (as of 8/5). (a.k.a. oy, no one likes mixed signals…) |
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The outlook now seems to favor two major rate cuts. (a.k.a. consensus says two rate cuts are coming, but we may have to wait another month.) |
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A few takeaways* from the above: - Turbulent times present opportunities. I can help you find the angle.
- There will always be deals. You just have to find them.
- Waiting on rates is NOT a winning strategy.
- If you are someone who NEEDS to buy/sell, now may be an opportunistic time.
- If/when we see a rate cut, BUCKLE UP!
- “Higher-for-longer” rates have served as a pressure valve for demand. Inventory builds. Buyers are waiting. Sellers are waiting. Release the pressure valve and…well…the rush happens.
- The market will be competitive.
- You can always refinance, but you cannot change your entry price.
- Be prepared to act.
*Every real estate scenario is different, and each person's timelines/objectives/motivations differ. There is never a one-size-fits-all solution. Get @ me to strategize around your specific scenario and how we can position you for success. |
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575 MADISON AVENUE, NY, NY 10022. 212.891.7000 © 2019 DOUGLAS ELLIMAN REAL ESTATE. ALL MATERIAL PRESENTED HEREIN IS INTENDED FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. WHILE, THIS INFORMATION IS BELIEVED TO BE CORRECT, IT IS REPRESENTED SUBJECT TO ERRORS, OMISSIONS, CHANGES OR WITHDRAWAL WITHOUT NOTICE. ALL PROPERTY INFORMATION, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO SQUARE FOOTAGE, ROOM COUNT, NUMBER OF BEDROOMS AND THE SCHOOL DISTRICT IN PROPERTY LISTINGS SHOULD BE VERIFIED BY YOUR OWN ATTORNEY, ARCHITECT OR ZONING EXPERT. IF YOUR PROPERTY IS CURRENTLY LISTED WITH ANOTHER REAL ESTATE BROKER, PLEASE DISREGARD THIS OFFER. IT IS NOT OUR INTENTION TO SOLICIT THE OFFERINGS OF OTHER REAL ESTATE BROKERS. WE COOPERATE WITH THEM FULLY. EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. |
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New York, NY 10022, United States |
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