INTELLIGENCE BRIEF:
Trendspotting isn't about jumping on the next viral thing - it's about detecting early irrational signals before they're obvious.
As Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman of Ogilvy and author of Alchemy, writes:“The problem with logic is it kills off magic.”
The most brilliant strategies often begin where logic stops - by noticing the work-arounds, anomalies, and emotional behaviors that hint at shifting needs or desires.
If it doesn't quite make sense yet, it might be the start of the next powerful trend.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
1. Subculture Hacks: Trends often start as coping mechanisms or life hacks in niche groups.
- Example: Gen Z started using TikTok as a search engine. Noticing this early gave some companies a massive visibility edge.
2. Friction Signals: Check out Reddit threads, TikTok comments, or Amazon product reviews. What people complain about reveals what they're willing to pay to fix.
3. Rogue Behavior: Look for people or brands that are breaking the rules - and still winning. These outliers often reveal a shift in emotional or cultural needs and what looks like bad business ideas may be the start of a new category.
- Example: As Sutherland points out, the success of Red Bull made no rational sense - it tasted bad, was overpriced, and had zero marketing logic. But it leaned into its edge - amplifying the feelings of energy, risk, and rebellion - and that boldness resonated. It didn't just sell a product, it built an empire around adrenaline.
4. Cross-Industry Borrowing: What's evolving in fashion, art, music, film, and food? Creative areas often reflect deeper human behavior ahead of the curve.
5.The Reversal Principle: Industry norms sometimes mask opportunity. Can you set yourself apart by doing the opposite of everyone else? For example, if everyone is highlighting minimalism, will leaning into bold maximalism set your business apart?
YOUR MOVE:
Block a minimum of 30 minutes weekly to scan for signals. Create a file to collect data and spend time analyzing. The more you do it, the more it will become second nature.
THE PLAYBOOK:
Create your trendspotting protocols.
- Track the friction. Keep a log of pain points gathered from Reddit, customer complaints, TikTok, product reviews, etc.
- Scan for shadow demand. Look for behavior that implies a need before it's voiced.
- Test the irrational. Rory Sutherland's advice: "Try the thing that shouldn't work." Because if it does, you just discovered leverage that others have missed.
- Borrow from bold industries. The future of your category might already be trending somewhere else.
WHY IT WORKS:
People buy with emotion first, logic second. That means the earliest signals hide in the irrational. Learn to look for them and you'll see opportunities long before the rest of your industry.
THE FINAL WORD:
You don't need to predict the future - you need to spot the signals before they make sense. The brands that see this first win the market.
