September was anything but quiet on Wall Street. All major U.S. stock indices hit new all-time highs, extending what has turned into a historic rally.

 

The month’s headline story came from the tech world: NVIDIA announced a $100 billion investment in OpenAI, ChatGPT’s parent company, to help build out databases for AI cloud services. That announcement fueled another leg higher for tech stocks. Some investors are starting to wonder whether this momentum is sustainable, but for now, the sector continues to lead the charge.

 

After months of speculation, the Federal Reserve finally cut interest rates by 0.25%. This was a widely anticipated move, and markets are now pricing in the likelihood of additional cuts before the end of 2025. Lower rates often act as a tailwind for stocks, and this move added more fuel to the current rally.

 

Traditionally, September is the weakest month of the year for markets. Many expected a pullback—but it never came. In fact, this was the S&P 500’s fifth straight month of gains, and the Nasdaq’s sixth, marking the longest winning streak in over a year and one of the longest in three decades.

 

What makes this run even more striking is the backdrop: just two seasons ago, the market was down 19% and volatility was soaring. Now, we’re at record highs. History also favors the months ahead: going back to 1950, the fourth quarter has been the strongest of the year, with the S&P 500 averaging a 4.2% gain about 80% of the time.

 

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE) came in at 2.7%, with core PCE at 2.9%, showing gradual progress toward the 2% target.

 

On the jobs front, growth has cooled, but it’s not collapsing. Weekly jobless claims surprised to the downside at 218,000, and the unemployment rate remains low at 4.3%. True private-sector job growth (excluding government, education, and healthcare) is up 0.4% year over year—modest, but still positive.

 

Meanwhile, household net worth continues to climb. According to the Federal Reserve, total household and nonprofit net worth reached a record $176 trillion in Q2 2025, up 4.2% from the first quarter and 6.1% year over year. Equities accounted for $3.7 trillion of that increase, with real estate adding another $1.2 trillion. Debt grew only slightly by comparison.

Not all signals are flashing green. Valuations are high, with the S&P 500 trading at roughly 23 times forward earnings. M2 money supply grew 4.8% year over year—slower than pre-COVID trends but still meaningful.

 

There’s also the question of  government shutdown we’re currently seeing. So far, markets don’t seem fazed, and history shows shutdowns don’t cause recessions, but they can bring short-term bumps in the road.

 

• S&P 500: +3.5% month-to-date | +13.7% year-to-date | +16.2% over the past year

• Dow Jones: +1.9% month-to-date | +9.0% year-to-date | +9.2% over the past year

• Nasdaq: +5.6% month-to-date | +17.0% year-to-date | +25.0% over the past year

 

This rally has been remarkable in both its strength and duration. While some caution is warranted—especially with valuations where they are—the combination of strong household wealth, a resilient labor market, and potential Fed support has kept the bull market charging into the fall.

 

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