Despite a rocky start to the year, 2025 has turned into a strong period for the stock market. By early October, the S&P 500 had already notched 28 record highs (Zacks Research). It’s natural for investors to wonder whether new highs mean the market is due for a pullback, but history offers helpful perspective: markets often continue rising even after hitting fresh records. For instance, 2021 saw an impressive 70 all-time highs (Argus Research), yet the market continued climbing.

 

 

As we head toward the end of the year, the current market landscape shows a blend of strengths and challenges. On one hand, corporate earnings continue to beat expectations and the S&P 500 remains strong. On the other, risks persist—particularly the heavy concentration in major tech names, which we’ll discuss. 

 

Still, the bull market that began on October 12, 2022 is now over three years old and has gained more than 90%, despite stubborn inflation, broad economic uncertainty, tariffs, trade disputes, a U.S. credit downgrade, and now a government shutdown.

 

 

Since World War II, there have been 13 bull markets, with an average gain of 164% over about 57 months (nearly five years). More recent bull markets have lasted even longer and delivered stronger returns. The five bull markets since 1980, for example, rose an average of 240% over almost six years. And the extraordinary bull market before the pandemic lasted 11 years and saw stocks climb 500% (Argus Research).

 

Given this history, it’s reasonable to ask: is the current bull market nearing its end? Not necessarily. Inflation has eased, interest rates are moving lower, and fears of recession may end up being eased. Add in the continued innovation and disruption coming from the technology sector, and there is still a case to be made for further market upside.

 

 

Because of the government shutdown, we did not get the usual Bureau of Economic Analysis report. Still, available data suggests the U.S. economy continued to grow in the third quarter. Consensus estimates point to roughly 3% GDP growth, with forecasts ranging from 1.7% to 3.8% (Argus Research).

 

Much of this momentum has been fueled by business investment—especially in technology, intellectual property, and equipment. Consumer spending has also remained strong. The CEO of American Express recently commented that “the health of our consumer is really, really good and they are spending.” Their CFO added that retail spending among AmEx cardholders is up 12%, while restaurant spending is up 9% (Argus Research).

 

 

One of the standout trends in 2025 has been the surge in AI-related spending, especially from major technology companies. Heavy investment in data centers and infrastructure has raised questions about whether an AI “bubble” is forming.

 

However, unlike the dot-com era, today’s leading AI companies are entering this period with strong profits, diversified revenue streams, and significant cash reserves (Confluence Investment Management). While no cycle is risk-free, the fundamentals behind today’s tech expansion appear much stronger than those of the late 1990s.

 

Historically, November has been the strongest month for the stock market. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 2.2% during November. Last year’s gain of 4.7% was boosted by election dynamics, but this year’s backdrop—robust earnings, declining interest rates, and steady GDP growth—also supports the possibility of another positive month.

 

S&P 500 companies have reported remarkably strong results this season: 83% have beaten earnings expectations, and overall earnings are up 8% from the same quarter last year (Confluence Investment Management).

 

 

This past month, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point. Opinions within the Fed varied widely: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid supported no cut at all, while economist Stephen Miran argued for a half-point reduction. These differing viewpoints highlight how challenging it is for the Fed to balance its goals of maximum employment and stable prices.

 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that a December cut is not a “foregone conclusion.” The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 70% chance that rates remain unchanged in December, a significant jump from only 30% just weeks ago.

 

 

• Dow: 11.8%

• S&P 500: 16.3%

• Nasdaq: 22.9%

 

• Dow: 2.5%

• S&P 500: 2.3%

• Nasdaq: 4.7%

 

• Dow: 13.9%

• S&P 500: 19.9%

• Nasdaq: 31.1%

 

Market cycles come and go, but history consistently rewards disciplined, long-term investing. Even with periods of volatility, the data shows that bull markets tend to last longer and rise higher than many expect. With strong corporate earnings, improving inflation trends, and resilient economic growth, the long-term outlook remains constructive.

 

For current investors, this environment reinforces the value of staying the course and sticking with your long-term plan. And if you haven’t begun investing yet, the good news is that it’s never too late to start. Markets continue to offer opportunities for those who approach them patiently and thoughtfully.

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