Over the last few years, the number of farms we buy beef from has decreased from five to one.
Parting ways with farm partners is a normal part of this work. Sometimes it’s for interpersonal reasons, sometimes it’s because we aren’t happy with the product, but lately it has been because of beef prices and the effect that's having on the market.
We like variety. With variety comes the security of not relying entirely on one producer, the fun of different products on different weeks, relationships with different farmers to provide multiple points of view into the world or agriculture. Building and sustaining relationships with different farms is one of the of the most fulfilling things we do.
It’s rare that our fate as purveyors of sustainable, mostly pastured beef is so tied up with that of the Canadian commodity market and its ebbs and flows. During the pandemic, when the whole industry suffered processing disruptions, supply chain problems, price spikes, our little corner of the world continued ticking along uninterrupted. The products we buy and sell generally follow their own rules of supply and demand. But that’s not true of beef these days. In the last few years, we have seen the price of beef skyrocket in the sustainable farming world alongside that of beef in the commodity market, our fates irrevocably intertwined. Since 2019, the price of beef carcasses has almost doubled.
The dramatic price increases we have seen in the beef market over the last few years are caused by decreasing cattle numbers in both the US and Canada. Canada’s current beef inventory is the lowest it has been since 1989. This shrinkage is caused by periods of drought, which have affected the availability and price of feed and pasture, making it harder to nourish and maintain cattle herds. The only solution to this problem is reducing herd size. Less animals means less mouths to feed, and less overhead costs. This decreased availability of beef is being met with increased demand. For all our knowledge about the negative impact of the beef industry on the environment, demand is going up. Despite decades of information about the harmful effects red meat has on our health, fads like the carnivore diet are thriving. Honestly, I’m deeply confused about whether red meat is bad for me or not. Being a lazy moderate I stick to the adage that everything is good, or at least not bad, in moderation. But there is no question or uncertainty about the impact of beef on the planet. Even when it’s pastured. Even when it’s organic. We should be eating less of it, not more.
Beef producers fall into three categories. The first tend herds of mother cows and young calves, who they raise for the first 10 months of their lives until the babies are weaned and become what the industry calls “feeders” – beef to be fed until it reaches slaughter weight. The second category “finishes” the feeders, housing and feeding them until they are ready for slaughter. The third category, the one we we consider preferable, is of farmers who complete the whole process, caring for their animals throughout their life cycle.
One way to control herd size is to slaughter cows - the reproductive females that give birth to the calves that eventually go to market. Cows have to be fed, but offer no short-term returns, since they are raised for the future benefit from the sale of their calves. In the short term, choosing instead to slaughter and sell them brings a farmer more immediate income, and reduces the amount of food they need to maintain the herd. But in the long term, the loss of reproductive females has the effect of slowing down the growth of the herd. Changing course and increasing the size of the herd again takes a very long time. To produce new calves, new females have to be born, reach reproductive age, carry a calf to term, and then the calf must reach maturity before it can be slaughtered. That’s a ten-year long process.
The state of the market has many implications for small farms like the ones we work with. For those in the first category of beef producers, those with calving operations, the effects of dry weather on pasture and the prohibitive cost of feed makes it hard to maintain and build the herd. For those in the second category, the finishers, the challenges are self-evident. There are less feeders available for purchase, at higher and higher prices, with very expensive feed as the cherry on top. Even when beef is grass finished, farmers often purchase hay and haylage in the winter, and these products are increasingly pricey, making it hard to feed as many calves.
For those in the third category, those that calve and finish beef, the temptation to sell off weaned calves instead of raising them to slaughter age is understandable. To a certain extent, these producers are shielded from the volatility of the market, especially if they can produce enough of their own feed. But the price a calf fetches on the open market or in auction these days is higher than ever. So instead of continuing to struggle, fighting with clients about high prices, overpaying for feed, some beef producers are choosing to exit the industry altogether while prices are favorable. Others are opting to reinvest in less risky sectors or shift entirely to crop production. Of the farms we have worked with in the last few years, two have sold their herds. And with the number of farmers raising pastured beef decreasing, the demand and pressure on those still in operation increase. Every one of the five new beef farmers I have spoken to in the last few months is sold out of beef for the remainder of 2026. More and more consumers have been going the route of the quarter or half beef carcass, filling their freezers for the next year at more reasonable prices than they would pay buying beef piecemeal at the supermarket. The same farmers I want to buy from are benefiting from this trend, and consequently, I am now building relationships for 2027 and beyond.
If you notice beef prices where you buy your beef going up, now you know why. And you can be sure that for the most-part, retailers are absorbing most of the dramatic increases. Beef has become a loss-leader for most of us. And one day, when beef is only available to the very rich, we will just stop selling it :)
