Last week multiple reports dropped and my LinkedIn feed flooded with charts, acronyms, and everyone trying to sound like Michael Douglas in Wall Street. (I've also noticed an uptick in pinstripe suits lately, which I'm not mad at).
If you had no idea what half of those economists were saying, same. I sorted through all of it so you don't have to.
Basically, consumers aren't happy, inflation is being stubborn as ever and we're deep in a trade war that has made my daily coffee so expensive I might have to make it at home. Screams. Maybe I'll cry into my bowl of not-so-lucky charms instead.
In this issue: what Friday's GDP revision, falling consumer sentiment, and "stagflation" actually mean for your small business.
Let's dive in ↓
GDP is slowing, consumers are stressed, and inflation isn't done yet…COOL COOL COOL.
TLDR: Last week's data validated what a lot of us small business owners are already feeling: costs are up, customers are watching every dollar, and the economic outlook isn't getting rosier. The good news is that pricing and supply chain decisions made this week are in your control.
What's actually happening
What these reports actually mean.
1. GDP got cut in half.
Q4 2025 GDP was revised down to 0.7%, from 1.4% the quarter prior and 4.4% the quarter before that. That is a cliff, not a slide.📉 Economists are now openly raising the risk of stagflation… slowing growth and rising costs hitting at the same time. GREAT.
2. Consumers are tapped out.
TheUniversity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Indexfell to 55.5 in March, the lowest in three months and 21% below January 2025. Nearly half of all consumers cited high prices as a direct strain on their finances, a reading that has stayed above 40% for seven months straight. Across every income level, age group, and political affiliation, people are tightening up. (le sigh)
3. Inflation looks steady. It isn't.
TheFebruary CPIcame in at 2.4%, right on forecast, and according to theWall Street Journal, it’s already irrelevant. That data predates the Iran war entirely. Food prices are at their highest annual gain since August, imported goods costs keep climbing, and the Strait of Hormuz is closed to commercial shipping. (None of this has hit our invoices yet).
Now is the time to audit your supplier relationships. If you have one overseas supplier in a tariff-impacted region, you are one phone call away from a margin crisis. Start exploring alternatives before you need them.
Your customers are comparison shopping more than ever. Wallets are tight, loyalty is being tested, and quietly underpricing yourself to stay competitive is not a strategy, it is a slow leak.
Protect your cash position now, not later. A cash flow problem is easier to solve in the present before it's an issue. Know your numbers and know your runway.
A REAL CLIENT WIN
We know this is heavy.
But there are wins for us small business owners, like one of my clients.
A specialty olive oil brand got the call no small business owner wanted, her overseas supplier raised prices significantly due to tariffs. We acted quickly. We audited her margins, found a different manufacturer, and helped her roll out a 12% price increase to start. No one batted an eye.
She didn't react, she responded, and continues to do so in order to survive the current state of the world.
Pick one. Do it by Friday.
Buy from a small business this week. Shop small, refer small, show up for small. Where we put our money matters.
Run your margin math. Take your top three revenue-generating products or services and recalculate using your current (not last year’s) cost inputs. Not sure where to start? Use this free profit margin calculator.
Book a Pricing Strategy Audit. If your margins are already compressed and you want direct 1:1 support, this is the expertise I bring. Let’s chat.
The bottom line
🌈 There's no pot of gold at the end of this rainbow… BUT you have the intel, you have the action items, and you have a community of small business owners in your corner.
*This issue was finalized on the morning of 3.16.26. The world was (kind of) still standing when we hit schedule... anything that's happened between then and today is fair game.
