There’s a lot of uncertainty right now and that’s leading to some dramatic headlines. And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that can make you feel a little less sure about your decision.

A recent study by CNBC asked homebuyers what they’re most worried about, and three themes kept coming up again and again:

But a lot of what you may be hearing on those is based more on misconceptions. Not facts. So, let’s break it down and separate fact from fiction.

One idea making its rounds through social media is that mortgage rates are going to drop dramatically soon. So, it’s better to wait to buy.

But is that really what’s expected?

While mortgage rates have come down a bit, forecasts don’t show a major drop ahead. The most likely scenario is that rates stay somewhere in the low 6% range this year.

And that’s not a big change from where rates are now (see graph below): 

Sources: Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, MBA, Wells Fargo

Of course, this depends on where inflation and the economy go from here. But, based on what we know today, waiting for a big drop in rates may not work out the way some people hope. As U.S. News explains:

Not to mention, even with rates where they are today, it’s already more affordable than a year ago. So, even if they don’t change much, it’s still better than it was.

You’ve probably heard inventory is up. And nationally, it is. The number of homes for sale is 8% higher than this time last year. But that’s not a bad thing. In fact, it’s one of the reasons buyers have a bit more breathing room right now.
 

The problem is the headlines are making something good, sound bad. They’re focusing on how this is the most inventory we’ve had since 2019 or how many homes builders are building. And that can make it sound like the number of homes for sale is rising too far, too fast.
 

But that’s not what the bigger picture shows.
 

Source: Realtor.com

While it can vary a lot based on where you live, only 9 states have more inventory than pre-pandemic today. That’s a key reason why there still aren’t enough homes for sale to trigger something like the crash back in 2008.

You’ve probably seen this one, too. The confusion is coming from the fact that some metros are experiencing slight price declines. And influencers are running with that and saying prices are crashing. But that’s not the reality.

Most areas are seeing prices rise, not fall. And that’s because:

And those are 3 big reasons prices aren’t headed for a crash.

And even in the markets experiencing mild declines, the drops aren’t enough to cancel out the big gains most homeowners have seen in the last 5 years (see graph below):

Sources: ResiClub, Zillow

Online posts are going to make things sound worse than they are. Certain pockets of Atlanta are performing much better than others. Some areas have excess supply, while others face shortages—this makes each neighborhood unique. If you want a true, data-bound look at what’s really happening in YOUR neighborhood, simply reply to this email or give us a call. We will talk through the real, current data about your market, not just the roller coaster headlines meant to make you scared or frustrated.