The secret to making money as an investor is to make a strong prediction, then take a strong position.

 

This rule is often realized in hindsight, when you're kicking yourself for not moving on something that you knew, plain as day, was going to be a hit.

 

Like I knew Amazon was going to be huge when I was an early customer on the free 2-day shipping with Amazon Prime. Are you kidding me – changed my life. Told everyone about it. I wasn’t investing in stocks back then, but if I had been, I should have gone all in.

 

 

Here's what I've learned: to be a good investor, you need a clean, coherent view of the next 10-20 years, above the noise. Where will people live? What will they do? I still think LA is the place.

 

Watch the 1953 newsreel linked below about the Los Angeles land rush, and tell me what is still true today (besides those very empty freeways).

 

The strategy isn't chasing upside – that's hard. It's finding what has the least downside. Beverly Hills will always be Beverly Hills. Maybe there's limited appreciation ahead, but it's NOT going down.

 

I feel the same about most of LA, despite all the headwinds. 

 

Owning assets in places that can't fail—that's the position worth taking.