Over the past year, one question has dominated my conversations with clients: how is AI going to reshape my field? It's a fair question, and one I take seriously. But there's another question that almost nobody asks – and it should be top of mind for every Canadian.
That question? How Canada's demographics are reshaping their field. Canada has several demographic shifts underway: a large cohort of baby boomers (many of whom are now retired or nearing retirement), a decreasing birth rate, and decreasing immigration.
Unlike AI, the impact of these changes is highly predictable. We know exactly how long it takes someone to age from 0 to 18, from 18 to 65, and from 65 to 80. Nothing about this process depends on employers’ adoption rates, regulatory responses, or whether technology delivers on its promises. It’s mainly math. But knowing what’s coming and preparing for it are two different things.
The three trends above look like separate phenomena, but they also compound:
- An aging population requires certain kinds of products and services
- Aging workers are exiting the workforce, creating vacancies
- “Prime age” workers (the government’s term, not mine) are increasingly taking on unpaid responsibilities as caregivers for their aging relatives, further constraining labour supply
- Declining birth rates mean there aren’t enough younger domestic workers to fill gaps
- Immigration remains a significant lever to address labour market imbalances – but credential recognition barriers mean it’s only partially functional
- Every year of declining immigration puts pressure on the domestic workforce pipeline
In other words: the supply of workers is tightening from multiple directions at the same time, and the system isn’t designed to respond to any of them effectively.
The Retirement CliffA large cohort of workers is retiring or nearing retirement, and they’re not evenly distributed across roles and industries. Manufacturing, agriculture, and fishing and hunting are hardest hit, with
nearly 25% (as of 2022) and
40% (as of 2024) of their workforces aged 55 or older. This is notable because these sectors are essential to Canada’s economy and food production.
If the next generation of the workforce doesn’t enter by the time they exit, we face a labour shortage that means less production output and (in service sectors) lower service capacity. Employers will also encounter a knowledge transfer problem: when experienced workers retire, they take institutional knowledge with them that can’t be easily replaced or automated. When new workers join a year or more later, they miss out. Retirement transitions are predictable, especially in physically-demanding fields like construction – but knowing people will be retiring doesn’t equate to having their replacements trained and lined up.
The Care CrunchOne in four Canadians is currently a caregiver – and this number is expected to grow as a large cohort of our population ages. This is a structural driver of non-linear careers. I’ve had colleagues and clients have to reduce their working hours or leave a job entirely because of caregiving responsibilities. This further tightens the labour supply: it's not just that older workers are leaving, it's that the workers who remain are operating under increasing pressure that affects their availability, productivity, and career trajectory. When that rationale is invisible in labour market data, the impact of caregiving on careers becomes a problem we can’t effectively measure or solve.
Birth Rates, Immigration, and The Gap in BetweenIn case you haven’t heard, Canada has a
declining birth rate. And although babies and children shouldn’t be reduced to being viewed as “future workers,” we can’t pretend that this year’s birth rate doesn’t predict the number of domestically-born high school graduates 18 years from now, and the number of workers beyond that. In 20 years, today’s 65-year olds will be 85 years old. Given the historically low birth rates of
2024 and 2025, will Canada have the workforce we need to support their care?
Declining domestic birth rates mean the retirement cliff can't be fully backfilled with people born here. Immigration is the obvious policy lever — but
that's down too, and
uneven regional distribution and credential recognition mean the lever only partially works.
The Compounding Problem
The labour supply is tightening at the same time as care burdens increase and the immigration system can’t fully compensate. So far, our governments are largely trying to solve this structural problem with investments into skilled trades and healthcare training programs. Whether those fixes are the right ones – and whether they will work – is uncertain. Luckily, aging happens at a consistent pace, so we can plan for what’s around the corner – but the evidence so far is not as reassuring as it should be for something so predictable.
What This Means for You
- If you’re early in your career: Consider how the retirement cliff creates real opportunity in sectors that are easy to overlook because they lack visibility or prestige. Skills and knowledge related to these sectors can become valuable faster than expected. Keep in mind that there are all kinds of careers in these sectors – not just the hands-on, technical ones people think of first. If you’re struggling to gain traction in your HR job search, could you look at employers in these fields rather than tech, consulting, or banking?
- If you’re late in your career: Consider what knowledge transfer and succession planning looks like. Documenting your institutional knowledge, serving as a mentor, and advocating for your employer or sector to attract the next generation of talent can be altruistic – and a surprisingly enjoyable next step in your own career development.
Demographic change is predictable enough that the consequences are not inevitable. Strategic individual action and thoughtful policy choices can help us avoid the worst possible outcomes – the question is whether enough people are paying enough attention to make those choices, and demand our leaders make them, too.
